A warmer-than-average summer is expected across Victoria, with an increased fire risk in many parts of the state. This is according to the Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for Summer released today.
Recent spring rain has increased soil moisture and green growth in many parts of the state. However, long-term dryness continues across south-west, western and central Victoria, and south-west Gippsland.
These conditions have caused a build-up of dry and dead vegetation. This increases fuel loads and makes fires more likely in the coming months.
An increased risk of fire is forecast for forest areas during January and February 2026.
Areas at higher risk include:
- the far south-west
- northern Otways
- Mt Buangor State Park
- Wombat State Forest and Central Highlands
- the Mornington Peninsula and south-west Gippsland
- north central (including Kinglake and Yarra Ranges)
- parts of Eildon.
Warmer summer temperatures will dry landscapes and forests faster, further increasing the risk of fire.
The rest of Victoria can still expect bushfires, especially on hot, dry and windy days.
Emergency services are well prepared and are closely monitoring conditions. They are ready to respond along with aircraft positioned across the state for the higher-risk weather season. These include planes and helicopters used for water bombing, air supervision and aerial intelligence which can be moved quickly, according to fire risk.
The aerial firefighting fleet will support thousands of emergency services personnel including:
- Country Fire Authority
- Forest Fire Management Victoria
- Fire Rescue Victoria
- Victoria State Emergency Service.
The Australian and New Zealand Fire and Emergency Services Council (AFAC) develops the outlook with support from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and state and territory fire and land managers.
Fire preparedness is everyone’s responsibility. You can reduce risk by taking simple steps.
Get ready
- Make a fire plan and practice it.
- Check daily Fire Danger Ratings on the VicEmergency app or website.
- Understand the 3 levels of warnings and what they mean.
- Prepare your property by:
- reducing vegetation around your home
- mowing lawns
- clearing gutters.
- Stay alert and informed about changing conditions.
