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Prevailing dry conditions increasing fire danger across the state

POSTED: 
17 February 2026

Hot, dry and windy conditions are driving elevated fire danger across most of the state today. Extreme Fire Danger Ratings have been forecast in five districts: Central, South West, Wimmera, North Central, and West and South Gippsland, along with Total Fire Bans being declared in these areas. A High Fire Danger Rating is forecast for the remaining districts.

While the risk is statewide, there is a focused area of concern in the rural-urban fringe. Recent fires are a reminder of the dry conditions in these areas. Last week, a grassfire started under extreme conditions in Clarkefield, near Sunbury, and quickly spread to more than 480 hectares, threatening homes in outer Melbourne. With widespread Extreme Fire Danger Ratings again, any new fires will also spread quickly and be extremely dangerous.

People in the northwest of Melbourne and down to Geelong particularly need to be aware of the grassfire risk today. There is a lot of unburnt grass and bush in these places.

Temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to high 30s, with fresh north to north-westerly winds around 30 to 40km/h, gusting to 50 to 60km/h. They may also reach 70 to 80km/h when the cool change comes through in the afternoon. The change is expected in the far south-west in the early afternoon, pushing through to western districts in the afternoon, and then tracking around Mildura, Ballarat and Geelong around 5pm. It is forecast to reach metropolitan areas between 6pm and 8pm, before passing through the north and Gippsland overnight.

This wind change may bring severe thunderstorms, increasing the risk of heavy rain, damaging winds and lightning.

After several weeks of hard work by firefighters and emergency services, the fires at Carlisle River (Otways Complex), Longwood and Walwa are all under control. Recovery work is underway and people can access these supports by going to www.emergency.vic.gov.au/relief or calling the Emergency Recovery Hotline on 1800 560 760.

Quotes attributable to Emergency Management Commissioner, Tim Wiebusch:

 “We know it’s very dry. The whole state is still a tinderbox.”

“Make sure you have downloaded the VicEmergency app and set a watch zone for where you are living, working or holidaying.”

Quotes attributable to Country Fire Authority Deputy Chief Officer, Alen Slijepcevic:

“Any fires that start and take hold will be hard to control.”

“The best option for your safety and the safety of your family is not to be there – to leave fire risk areas early.”

Quotes attributable to Fire Rescue Commissioner, Gavin Freeman:

“It doesn’t matter where you live in the state; the best chance of us being able to help you is you knowing how to respond yourself. Make sure you and your family know your fire plan and be ready to enact it and stay aware of your surroundings.”

“If you are undertaking any activities in the outdoors, think about whether it could start a fire. If the answer is ‘yes, it could’, don’t do it.”

Quotes attributable to Bureau of Meteorology Senior Meteorologist, Briony Macpherson:

“Those winds, combined with the hot, dry air is what is elevating the fire danger.”

“The wind change will bring quite a bit of relief but it will make fires hard to fight if any do start.”

 

Victorians are reminded to never rely on one channel for emergency information. Connect to official sources of emergency information, including

  • VicEmergency app
  • www.emergency.vic.gov.au
  • Tune in to local emergency broadcasters such as ABC local radio, commercial and select community radio stations, or SkyNews TV
  • Call the VicEmergency Hotline on 1800 226 226
  • Follow VicEmergency on Facebook and X

-ENDS-  

Media contact:

State Control Centre Media via 1300 287 289